India’s R-naught value indicates the spread of COVID-19 recorded at four this week. It suggested a very high infection transmission rate. According to a preliminary analysis, IIT Madras predicted the peak of the third wave between February 1-15. R-naught indicates the number of people an infected person can spread the disease to. A pandemic is considered to end if this value goes below 1. The R0 value was close to 2.9 nationally in the past week (December 25 to December 31). The number was recorded at four this week (January 1-6). Dr. Jayant Jha, Assistant Professor, Department of Mathematics, IIT Madras, said R0 depends on three things.
Transmissibility probability, contact rate, and the expected time interval of infection. “Now, with the increase in quarantine measures or restrictions, maybe the contact rate will go down and then in that case R0 can decrease. So, based on our preliminary analysis, which is just based on the last two weeks, we can tell these numbers. But again, these numbers can change based on how much affirmative action is taken concerning social gathering and all,” he said
The Union Health Ministry said India is seeing an exponential rise in coronavirus cases.
The Union Health Ministry said India is seeing an exponential rise in coronavirus cases. It is believed to be driven by the Omicron variant. It also highlighted that the country’s R naught value is 2.69, higher than the 1.69 recorded during the pandemic’s second wave peak. Mr. Jha said the ministry’s estimates are based on a different time interval than IIT Madras. which has done the preliminary analysis from the past two weeks. He further said that as per their estimate, the peak in the current wave is expected to come between February 1-15. It is expected to be sharper than earlier peaks. We expect from the exploratory data analysis that the rise will happen somewhere between February 1-15. The study also shows that as compared to previous waves, there will be a sharper increase to the peak,” Mr. Jha said